Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.468202 1.522988 1.579581 1.642589 1.711001 1.783286 1.865771
2025-12-14 1.388368 1.460241 1.536685 1.624557 1.723444 1.832102 1.961690
2025-12-21 1.326286 1.408939 1.498746 1.604490 1.726838 1.865569 2.037239
2025-12-28 1.293506 1.386581 1.489708 1.613896 1.761467 1.934088 2.155933
2026-01-04 1.270722 1.373333 1.489073 1.631407 1.804914 2.014194 2.293767
2026-01-11 1.237828 1.346287 1.470345 1.625483 1.818569 2.057517 2.387600
2026-01-18 1.212024 1.325997 1.458076 1.625889 1.838996 2.109514 2.496250
2026-01-25 1.175068 1.290820 1.426189 1.600126 1.824228 2.114058 2.539266
2026-02-01 1.149832 1.268596 1.408850 1.591268 1.830058 2.145394 2.621966
2026-02-08 1.125595 1.246607 1.390752 1.580280 1.831972 2.170805 2.697510
2026-02-15 1.102908 1.225677 1.373058 1.568768 1.832142 2.193170 2.769798
2026-02-22 1.088562 1.214429 1.366868 1.571606 1.851410 2.243245 2.890050
2026-03-01 1.059528 1.184630 1.336903 1.542751 1.826595 2.229115 2.906879
2026-03-08 1.041054 1.167456 1.322371 1.533674 1.828681 2.254517 2.992376
2026-03-15 1.022008 1.149017 1.305589 1.520808 1.824550 2.269921 3.061919
2026-03-22 1.014785 1.145218 1.307425 1.532997 1.856646 2.342902 3.244307
2026-03-29 1.010650 1.145126 1.313926 1.551620 1.898869 2.434989 3.478158
2026-04-05 0.997943 1.133666 1.305066 1.548413 1.908219 2.474116 3.613532
2026-04-12 0.987930 1.125391 1.300111 1.550377 1.925284 2.527150 3.787359
2026-04-19 0.969008 1.105143 1.278660 1.528154 1.904043 2.512985 3.810844
2026-04-26 0.956630 1.093158 1.267977 1.520948 1.905727 2.538706 3.929833
2026-05-03 0.943959 1.080519 1.256085 1.511561 1.903456 2.557093 4.034903
2026-05-10 0.931555 1.067981 1.244023 1.501513 1.899610 2.572232 4.134958